What does 2025 hold for the pork sector?

The Spanish pig sector has experienced positive economic growth this year, driven by a mismatch between slaughter capacity and pig production, raising prices. However, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of challenges, with the need to adapt to new animal welfare regulations, address health problems and strengthen competitiveness in the international market. In addition, artificial intelligence is emerging as a tool with great potential to improve prevention and efficiency on farms. We discussed all these issues with Miguel Ángel Higuera, director of ANPROGAPOR.

To put ourselves in context, what is the starting point? What has 2024 been like?
It has been a curious and optimistic year for the sector from an economic point of view. We continue to have a mismatch between slaughter capacity and production, and this problem has positively impacted prices. In other words, we need more pigs than we can produce, and this mismatch means that the price differential in the market is favourable. In addition, we have some issues on the table that complicate the sector, but we need to address them more convincingly as if we had more fine-tuned prices. I am referring to competitiveness issues in animal health and diseases. 

In addition to these questions, what challenges must the Spanish pork sector face in 2025?
We have some issues on the table that can affect us thoroughly. First, we must adapt to animal welfare regulations, such as the Royal Decree 159/2023, which requires us to modify the densities of animals on fattening farms. The beginning of 2025 is expected to be problematic regarding this, as we are still looking at how to adjust production for compliance with regulations and measuring the impact we can have on the herd. The prospects for 2025 would have been to increase production, but by applying the rules, they may become complicated. On the other hand, we need help with the quantity of environmental authorisations required to build new farms. In regions with significant growth potential, we have grave difficulties, and the complications in achieving amplifications compound this. In addition, we have health problems right now, such as PRRS outbreaks. Still, there is no doubt that one of the aspects that we must work on, and increasingly, is to continue establishing protection policies to prevent African swine fever (ASF) from entering us. Indeed, this is one of the most critical issues because everything else is meaningless with the security of having a country free of ASF. In 2025, the investigation process of the Chinese authorities on the price dumping procedure will also end, and Spain may be one of the most affected since we are the leading exporter.

There is a lot of talk about the application of AI in our sector. What role do you foresee it having?
Next year, it will still be early, but it will play a significant role in the short term, especially if we link it to data analysis. It has considerable potential in programming the processes we have computerised on the farms, and it can offer insight into our animals to move towards what we all want, which is disease prevention. In other words, if, thanks to the technification of farms, artificial intelligence can tell us what events are likely to happen, we will know what we must do to avoid them happening. In any case, you don't have to give it the importance that many people are giving it or think it can solve everything.

Welfare regulations are one of the challenges for 2025. Photo: Rotecna.

How did you close 2024 market-wise, and what do you expect 2025 to be like?
Right now, there is a lot of pressure at the market level, and you must be very competitive to export. Currently, prices in the European Union could be more competitive; therefore, we have been losing access to the market of third countries for almost three years. However, Spain is doing something quite significant: directing many exports to the European domestic market, which has advantages. First, it is a closer market, and then regionalisation is accepted in case of any health problems. And, finally, it has a better price than foreign markets. So, it is expected that in 2025, the trend will be this: if China imposes their rates, more market share could be lost to the Asian country. Therefore, the objective is to retake and conquer even more of the internal market of the European Union.

And in terms of consumption, are trends changing?
The last few years have been too unpredictable due to external factors. In the COVID-19 era, pork consumption skyrocketed in households, and after that period, we had a downward rebound. Surprisingly, and in a very positive way, in 2024, we have again had a positive rebound, so expectations are optimistic, as the sharp drop that some had predicted is not happening. We do not want to say that this is already solved and that we will always consume pork, but we can say that it is holding up better than we expected. 

What can we do to improve the image of our sector and ensure that consumers continue to ask for our product?
We must work internally to deal with potential attacks and fix them. So, the first thing is to ensure that, as a sector, we do everything we say we would and that the quality of the pork sector is very high. The second thing is to improve communication even more. We must communicate and inform about what we are doing and how we are doing it, and transmit that pride in the sector that those of us who are part of it have. This is not only the task of the interprofessional but also the task of every member who participates in this sector. Therefore, we have to communicate our day-to-day lives so that people know the benefits of the industry first-hand. We are very aware of them, and we are the best communicators. Therefore, we must make an extra effort and make society aware of why the pork sector is essential and what has led us to our world leadership position.

Finally, the need for generational renewal continues to be to be solved. How can we fight it?
We have to work to motivate the new generations so that they see that the pork sector has a suitable professional future with high-quality work. We need people to create an industry. No matter how many pigs and many farms there are, people and professionals are behind everything. We have to motivate and explain to people that our sector guarantees a quality of life and adequate economic viability and is a beautiful sector in which to work. Therefore, we have to motivate those professionals who do not know us so that they can come to work and wager on us.